🔪 #1 CHOP CANDIDATE

Clobberknockers

10.38% CHOP PROBABILITY

Sleeper risk #2 · Killanomics risk #1 · 1.87× average risk

🔪 THE CHOPPING BLOCK

#1 Clobberknockers

10.38%

1.87× league-average risk · Floor 83.6

Swing: Josh Allen ≥ 23.0

#2 Chop Til I Drop

10.36%

1.87× league-average risk · Floor 84.0

Swing: Ja'Marr Chase ≥ 19.7

#3 Catch These Hands 👊🏿

9.55%

1.72× league-average risk · Floor 83.7

Swing: Malik Nabers ≥ 11.7

League Chop Board

Rank #1 means most likely to finish last. Model odds are analytical, not gambling odds.

Risk	Team	Chop	Multiple	Index	Killa	Sleeper	Floor	Sleeper Risk	Delta
#1CHOP ZONE	Clobberknockersbayoklein	10.38%	1.87×	83.2	96.0	95.8	83.6	#2	+0.1
#2CHOP ZONE	Chop Til I DropLCAzcona	10.36%	1.87×	78.5	96.8	102.0	84.0	#8	-5.1
#3EXTREME DANGER	Catch These Hands 👊🏿TyTheGreatest	9.55%	1.72×	77.9	95.6	100.5	83.7	#4	-4.9
#4EXTREME DANGER	JaspersDadJaspersDad	9.07%	1.63×	74.9	98.2	102.0	85.3	#7	-3.7
#5EXTREME DANGER	KingJames117KingJames117	6.74%	1.21×	63.8	101.3	100.0	88.2	#3	+1.3
#6DANGER	jdamiani07jdamiani07	6.23%	1.12×	60.8	99.6	103.5	87.9	#9	-3.9
#7DANGER	Momoney1288Momoney1288	5.94%	1.07×	58.3	99.4	101.7	87.9	#5	-2.3
#8DANGER	HurtNabersHurtNabers	5.70%	1.03×	55.8	103.2	93.8	89.9	#1	+9.5
#9SWEAT ZONE	tbach24tbach24	5.29%	0.95×	46.7	105.6	101.7	91.5	#6	+4.0
#10SWEAT ZONE	Jayden ScramblesDannyBoy413	5.20%	0.94×	45.2	104.8	104.2	91.3	#10	+0.6
#11SWEAT ZONE	Put ‘Em Down Jeantlypdoakland	4.76%	0.86×	42.8	105.6	108.8	91.9	#12	-3.2
#12SWEAT ZONE	Bsoares401Bsoares401	4.54%	0.82×	42.2	105.2	105.3	92.1	#11	-0.0
#13SAFE	Vladjoseph37Vladjoseph37	3.25%	0.58×	33.1	108.0	109.3	95.1	#13	-1.3
#14SAFE	Alesclubalesclub	3.19%	0.58×	28.2	108.3	110.8	95.2	#15	-2.5
#15SAFE	B.I.T.E.jsoares7711	2.68%	0.48×	25.8	109.6	111.1	96.7	#16	-1.5
#16SAFE	rwgolishrwgolish	2.66%	0.48×	22.2	111.2	113.0	97.5	#17	-1.8
#17ICE COLD	kmillzbos617kmillzbos617	2.39%	0.43×	16.4	110.4	110.0	97.4	#14	+0.4
#18ICE COLD	Last Kutkillanomic5	2.08%	0.37×	11.7	114.1	116.2	100.2	#18	-2.1

Model Receipt

Run 2026-08-24 08:54 ET · Projection source 2026-08-24T07:45:42+00:00 · Seed 20260901 · Probability total 1.0000

Sleeper league rosters do not yet expose submitted Week 1 starters; lineups are model-selected from the completed draft and labeled accordingly. Sleeper Week 1 projections provide current expected scoring, opponent and injury fields; the repository has no complete 2026 snap, route, target, red-zone, depth-chart or implied-total feed. Historical variance uses available 2025 league-observed starts; players without sufficient history use transparent position variance priors. Manual injury review covers only configured players. UNVERIFIED means no separate manual injury assessment, not healthy. Correlation models shared NFL offense and game environment; it does not claim causal precision for every player pair.

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